Should we really hurry to sell our petrol-powered cars as soon as possible? Is it still worth buying a petrol-powered car at all? And where is it gonna stay after the guidelines for a transition to greener transport set by the European Green Deal are going to enter into force? The Deal has set a final date for the manufacturing of new petrol and diesel-powered cars, and that is the year 2035. But the United Kingdom has decided to make that shift even sooner, by the year 2030, which means it is less than 10 years away from now. All these upcoming changes are undoubtedly taking us to the end of the petrol-powered cars. And the statistics already this year show an obvious trend: in the European Union, sales of cars with alternative engines are increasing, while sales of petrol and diesel-powered cars are decreasing.
We will tell you more about what can be observed in the current car market in cooperation with classifieds portal dalder.lv, in which both sellers and buyers of cars are given space for free ad. Already quite a time ago, offers of electric cars appeared on the portal, and it is expected that their number is only going to increase in the future. Besides, the analysis of data has shown that electric cars have a higher value in the used car market when compared to the petrol-powered ones of the same year and model. We can take as an example the 2014 Volkswagen eUp and its petrol model Up which at the time cost 26000 and 15000 euro. At the moment, used models cost 12000 and 5000 euro. Thus it can be concluded that the value of electric cars remains higher allowing them to be sold at a better price in the future.
Already this summer BBC correspondent Justin Rowlatt called the transition to electric cars the greatest motoring revolution of the century, comparing it to Henry Ford's first production line that dates back to 1913. The European Green Deal, in turn, has named the shift to more nature-friendly energy the third industrial revolution. Moreover, the transition awaits us even sooner than we think.
The world's largest car manufacturers are also planning to stop the production of petrol and diesel cars. Starting from 2025 Jaguar is going to sell electric cars only, Volvo has taken the same decision, only starting from the year 2030, but the British sports cars manufacturer Lotus - from 2028. Besides, it is not only Premium car manufacturers that have made this decision. Also such well-known brands as General Motors will switch to production of electric cars by 2035, Ford - by 2030, but VW has set a goal to produce mainly electric cars by 2030 (70% of the cars being electric).
The same Rowlatt compares the growing popularity of electric cars to the path of development of any other innovation, by observing the demand curve. As new products appear on the market, 3 different stages can be distinguished: the initial demand is low as the technology is still at the very beginning of its development, afterwards a middle stage follows - a gradual increase in demand is observed as the prices drop, and, finally, the market is saturated. According to this curve, it all happens within 35 years.
In the last century it took just a few decades for the internal combustion engine to replace the horse-drawn carriage completely, but since the first message from University of California was sent out to another one just by a small group of nerds, by 2001 the internet was being used by already 513 millions of users all over the world. The same thing happened to smartphones, photography and even antibiotics - the initial number of people interested in those novelties was small, but in a relatively short period of time they all conquered the global market and became an integral part of everyday life. The same is expected to happen with electric cars.
Robert Anderson, the inventor of Scottish origin, developed the first electric car in its initial, incomplete stage as early as the 19th century. However, as already indicated in the innovation curve, initial demand was low precisely because the technology was not yet sufficiently developed and the price was too high.
For example, the development of the General Motors EV1 cost a billion dollars, it was considered a completely unsuccessful project, and a very small number of cars were produced as a result. It was able to drive only 80 km. In addition, the car could not be heated, as this would reduce the mileage by a tenth.
However, from the relatively difficult beginning, when the electric car was associated with various great burdens and limitations, today an extensive charging network has already been built and the electric car can drive several hundred kilometers with 1 full charge. Electric cars today are no longer the same as they were 10 years ago. Prices also continue to fall and more and more buyers choose the electric car models.
In 2020, the sales of electric cars at the global level increased by 43%, although with the coronavirus the number of cars sold in the total car market had decreased. It was reported that the number of petrol-powered cars in Latvia has decreased by 16.5% this year, while the number of hybrid cars sold has increased by 213%. Among all the Baltic States, this is the highest rate. On the other hand, in the first quarter of the year, sales in the electric car market in Latvia increased by 47.7%. The same trend is observed in all European markets: sales of petrol-powered cars are falling and sales of electric cars are increasing.
The transition to electric cars is not just a nature-friendly goal. The business analysts agree that it is the reality of the business already today. The internal combustion engine started the automotive engineering, but the electric car is the future of it. According to the goal set by the European Union to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 to become the 1st climate neutral part of the world, it is certain that the change is going to happen and it will be fast.
What exactly will happen to the petrol and diesel-powered cars, is yet hard to tell. They will surely disappear from the map of newly produced European cars within the upcoming 15 years. But it does not mean that it will not be possible to keep on driving the previously produced models. Still, from the world stage of cars they are gradually expected to disappear, and also the statistics of this year support this prediction. We surely will have a chance to drive around with petrol-powered cars for a while; however, taking into account the demand today, it is obvious that the market share of petrol-cars will continue to decline.
If we move to the electrified future just a few decades from now, selling the petrol-powered car now seems to be just about the right moment. For example, it can be done on dalder.lv where publishing classifieds and creating a private sellers website are for free. Also reviews can be left there. That is why Dalder is considered to be the safest and most professional market platform when it comes to car ads.
13-03-2020, 19:28
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